GAZI UNIVERSITY INFORMATION PACKAGE - 2019 ACADEMIC YEAR

COURSE DESCRIPTION
FORECASTING METHODS/2750042
Course Title: FORECASTING METHODS
Credits 3 ECTS 7.5
Semester 2 Compulsory/Elective Elective
COURSE INFO
 -- LANGUAGE OF INSTRUCTION
  Turkish
 -- NAME OF LECTURER(S)
  Prof. Dr. Nezir KÖSE
 -- WEB SITE(S) OF LECTURER(S)
  http://websitem.gazi.edu.tr/site/nezir
 -- EMAIL(S) OF LECTURER(S)
  nezir@gazi.edu.tr
 -- LEARNING OUTCOMES OF THE COURSE UNIT
Students can decompose the time series components.
An appropriate time series model can be determined by students
Time series forecasting of an economic indicator can be calculated.






 -- MODE OF DELIVERY
  The mode of delivery of this course is Face to face
 -- PREREQUISITES AND CO-REQUISITES
  There is no prerequisite or co-requisite for this course.
 -- RECOMMENDED OPTIONAL PROGRAMME COMPONENTS
  Introduction to Ecnometrics, Statistical Analysis
 --COURSE CONTENT
1. Week  Components of time series
2. Week  Trend Analysis
3. Week  Calculation of Seasonal Factors Moving Average Methods for Multiplicative Structure
4. Week  The Moving Average Methods for Additive Structure
5. Week  The Simple Exponential Smoothing Method
6. Week  The Hold Method
7. Week  The Holt-Winter Method
8. Week  Problem Hour
9. Week  Stationarity Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation Functions
10. Week  The Autoregressive Models
11. Week  The Moving Average Models
12. Week  Model Spesification
13. Week  Parameter Estimation
14. Week  Model Diagnostics
15. Week  Forecasting
16. Week  Problem Hour
 -- RECOMMENDED OR REQUIRED READING
  1. Akdi, Yılmaz (2003), Zaman Serileri Analizi, Bıçaklar Kitapevi, Ankara 2. Sevüktekin, Mustafa ve Mehmet Nargeleçekenler (2005), Zaman Serileri Analizi, Nobel Yayın Dağıtım, Ankara 3. Wei, W. S. M. (1990) Time Series Analysis, Addison Wesley Pub. California.
 -- PLANNED LEARNING ACTIVITIES AND TEACHING METHODS
  Lecture
 -- WORK PLACEMENT(S)
  Not Applicable
 -- ASSESSMENT METHODS AND CRITERIA
 
Quantity
Percentage
 Mid-terms
1
50
 Assignment
0
0
 Exercises
0
0
 Projects
0
0
 Practice
0
0
 Quiz
0
0
 Contribution of In-term Studies to Overall Grade  
50
 Contribution of Final Examination to Overall Grade  
50
 -- WORKLOAD
 Efficiency  Total Week Count  Weekly Duration (in hour)  Total Workload in Semester
 Theoretical Study Hours of Course Per Week
12
3
36
 Practising Hours of Course Per Week
2
3
6
 Reading
14
2
28
 Searching in Internet and Library
12
2
24
 Designing and Applying Materials
14
1
14
 Preparing Reports
12
2
24
 Preparing Presentation
12
2
24
 Presentation
1
3
3
 Mid-Term and Studying for Mid-Term
7
2
14
 Final and Studying for Final
7
2
14
 Other
0
 TOTAL WORKLOAD: 
187
 TOTAL WORKLOAD / 25: 
7.48
 ECTS: 
7.5
 -- COURSE'S CONTRIBUTION TO PROGRAM
NO
 PROGRAM LEARNING OUTCOMES
1
2
3
4
5
1To comprehend advance information about production and operations management, production planning and control, project management, total quality management, operations research, supply chain management, forecasting, service management, research techniques, marketing strategies and financial management areasX
2To get adequate information and experience in the designing process of production systems when determining system parameters.
3To investigate solutions for system failures, to comment information about related areas, to develop production strategies and finally to start a projectX
4To improve strategies for marketing and sale, to plan future plans for marketing department in consideration of strategic goalsX
5To use area related information on behalf of modern production systems, moreover, to plan, apply and control necessary strategies
6To determine total quality management processes in order to produce products with worldwide quality standards and to transfer information via team workX
7To decide and apply most suitable quantitative techniques in order to optimize several production applicationsX
8To provide active usage of management information systems with third party service providers in decision making processX
9To plan, execute and control production and operations management strategies for service companies
10To analyze the difference between assets and equities that emerges from several activities in a specific time interval for a company
11To use forecasting techniques for planning future related actions of company and to execute these techniques in a good mannerX
12To trace worldwide changes about production and operations management, to promote innovations and to transfer experience toward employee
13To specify necessary steps for executing business activities via team work
14To provide information about project management techniques and to prepare report about several resourcesX