GAZI UNIVERSITY INFORMATION PACKAGE - 2019 ACADEMIC YEAR

COURSE DESCRIPTION
EARLY WARNING INDICATORS/1080070
Course Title: EARLY WARNING INDICATORS
Credits 3 ECTS 7.5
Semester 1 Compulsory/Elective Elective
COURSE INFO
 -- LANGUAGE OF INSTRUCTION
  Turkish
 -- NAME OF LECTURER(S)
  Assoc.Prof. Senay Acikgoz
 -- WEB SITE(S) OF LECTURER(S)
  www.websitem.gazi.edu.tr/site/asenay
 -- EMAIL(S) OF LECTURER(S)
  asenay@gazi.edu.tr
 -- LEARNING OUTCOMES OF THE COURSE UNIT
Determines the variables signaling about the vulnerabilities of economic system.
Forecasts with the variables signaling about the vulnerabilities of economic system.
Learns the methods of early warning systems.
Does empirical research by using the methods of early warning system.
 -- MODE OF DELIVERY
  The mode of delivery of this course is Face to face
 -- PREREQUISITES AND CO-REQUISITES
  There is no prerequisite or co-requisite for this course.
 -- RECOMMENDED OPTIONAL PROGRAMME COMPONENTS
  This course is related to Econometric I-II, Applied Econometrics I-II and Time Series Analysis courses.
 --COURSE CONTENT
1. Week  Forecasting and Forecasting Methods
2. Week  The Leading Indicator Approach as an Early Warning Systems: Reference Series, Leading, Contemporanous and Lagging Indicators
3. Week  Components of a Time Series: Trend, Seasonal Movements, Irregular Movements and Cyclical Movements
4. Week  Methods of Decomposition of Time Series : Trend
5. Week  Methods of Decomposition of Time Series : Seasonal Movements- I
6. Week  Methods of Decomposition of Time Series : Seasonal Movements- II
7. Week  Methods of Decomposition of Time Series : Cyclical Movements
8. Week  MIDTERM
9. Week  Determining the Leading Indicators: Turning Points Approach
10. Week  Determining the Leading Indicators: Cross-Correlations and Causality Analysis
11. Week  Constructing the Indicator Indices
12. Week  Leading Indicators for the Level of General Economic Activitiy and Financial Vulnerability
13. Week  Literature on the Leading Indicatora Approach and the Empirical Papers for the Turkish Economy
14. Week  Applications with Econometric Analysis Softwares
15. Week  Presentation of the Final Projects
16. Week  FINAL
 -- RECOMMENDED OR REQUIRED READING
  AUERBACH, A.J. “The Index of Leading Indicators: “Measurement Without Theory”, Thirty-Five Years Later”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, 1982, 589-595. BUTLER, W.H, A.R. KAVESH, R.B. PLATT. Methods and Techniques of Business Forecasting, Prentice-Hall, INC., New Jersey, 1974. CHAMBERS, J,C., S.K., MULLICK, D.D., SMITH. “How to Choose the Right Forecasting Technique”, Harvard Business Review, 7-8, 45-74, 1971. DAUTEN, C.A., ve L.M. VALENTINE. Business Cycles and Forecasting, Cincinati: South-Western Publishing Co., 1974. DeLEEUVE, F. “Toward of a Theory of Leading Indicators”, Lahiri, K., G.H., Moore (ed, 1991), Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records, Cambridge University Pres, New York:, 1991. DeWOLF, J.W. ve başk. Early Warning Forecast, Boston: Cahners Publishing Co., 1978. HYMANS, S.H. “On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points”, Brooking Papers o
 -- PLANNED LEARNING ACTIVITIES AND TEACHING METHODS
  Lecture, Question & Answer, Demonstration, Drill - Practise
 -- WORK PLACEMENT(S)
  No
 -- ASSESSMENT METHODS AND CRITERIA
 
Quantity
Percentage
 Mid-terms
1
40
 Assignment
0
0
 Exercises
0
0
 Projects
1
20
 Practice
0
0
 Quiz
0
0
 Contribution of In-term Studies to Overall Grade  
40
 Contribution of Final Examination to Overall Grade  
60
 -- WORKLOAD
 Efficiency  Total Week Count  Weekly Duration (in hour)  Total Workload in Semester
 Theoretical Study Hours of Course Per Week
12
3
36
 Practising Hours of Course Per Week
2
3
6
 Reading
14
2
28
 Searching in Internet and Library
12
2
24
 Designing and Applying Materials
14
1
14
 Preparing Reports
12
2
24
 Preparing Presentation
12
3
36
 Presentation
1
3
3
 Mid-Term and Studying for Mid-Term
7
2
14
 Final and Studying for Final
7
2
14
 Other
0
 TOTAL WORKLOAD: 
199
 TOTAL WORKLOAD / 25: 
7.96
 ECTS: 
7.5
 -- COURSE'S CONTRIBUTION TO PROGRAM
NO
 PROGRAM LEARNING OUTCOMES
1
2
3
4
5
1Having the professional expertise and skills on theoretical and practical aspect of econometrics.X
2Having appropriate behavior of econometricsin the field of social, scientific, cultural and ethical values, applicability of gained knowledge and skills in accordance with the principle of responsibility to social and working life.X
3Having skills about selecting, using and evaluating of appropriate econometrics and statistical programming methods, based on theoretical and practical knowledge acquired in the field related to the current problems faced by.X
4Having skills to work with the team for reach fruitful results in interdisciplinary and interdisciplinary studies.X
5Having knowledge of research methods in the field of institutions and organizations planning projects, managing in order to conduct independent research.X
6Using some of the advanced level econometrics and statistical software programs.X
7Having skills about information system related to the fields in working life.X
8Having qualities for analytical thinking, prospecting and bring scientific solutions to problems as a researcher.X
9Having skills to comprehension, application and evaluation about terms and basic theory of operational research.
10Having the professional expertise and skills on theoretical and practical aspects of operational research.