GAZI UNIVERSITY INFORMATION PACKAGE - 2019 ACADEMIC YEAR

COURSE DESCRIPTION
FORESIGHT METHODS/EKON410
Course Title: FORESIGHT METHODS
Credits 3 ECTS 5
Semester 8 Compulsory/Elective Elective
COURSE INFO
 -- LANGUAGE OF INSTRUCTION
  Turkish
 -- NAME OF LECTURER(S)
  Assoc. Prof. Furkan Emirmahmutoğlu
 -- WEB SITE(S) OF LECTURER(S)
  http://websitem.gazi.edu.tr/site/furkan
 -- EMAIL(S) OF LECTURER(S)
  emirfurkan@gmail.com
 -- LEARNING OUTCOMES OF THE COURSE UNIT
Learn the basic and advance methods of econometric forecasting.
Be able to Forecast Required Economic Indicators' Future Values.
Judge Accuracy of Forecasting Studies with Respect to Statistics and Economics.
Improve Skills of Using Econometrics Computer Programs.
 -- MODE OF DELIVERY
  The mode of delivery of this course is Face to face.
 -- PREREQUISITES AND CO-REQUISITES
  There is no prerequisite or co-requisite for this course.
 -- RECOMMENDED OPTIONAL PROGRAMME COMPONENTS
  There is no recommended optional programme component for this course.
 --COURSE CONTENT
1. Week  Introduction the Forecasting
2. Week  Expost and Exante Forecasting
3. Week  Forecasting with Univariate Time Series
4. Week  Forecasting with Time Series Regression
5. Week  Forecasting with Multivariate Time Series Regression
6. Week  Forecasting Uncertainty and Forecasting Range
7. Week  Criterias That Measures Forcasting Accuracy
8. Week  Midterm
9. Week  Forecasting with Non-Stationary and Break Contained Series
10. Week  Forecasting with ADL Models
11. Week  Forecasting with VAR Models
12. Week  Multi-Period Forecasting
13. Week  Recurring Multi-Period Forecasting
14. Week  Direct Multi-Period Forecasting
15. Week  Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Forecast
16. Week  Final
 -- RECOMMENDED OR REQUIRED READING
  Ekonometriye Giriş - James H. Stock ve Mark W. Watson Translated by Prof.Dr.Bedriye Saraçoğlu. Using Econometrics - A. H. Studentmund, 5. Edition, 15. Chapter. Introduction Econometrics with Application - Ramu Ramanthan, 5. Edition, 11. Chapter. Econometric Models and Economic Forecast - Robert Pindyck ve Daniel Rubinfeld, 4. Edition.
 -- PLANNED LEARNING ACTIVITIES AND TEACHING METHODS
  Lecture, Question & Answer, Demonstration, Drill - Practise
 -- WORK PLACEMENT(S)
  No
 -- ASSESSMENT METHODS AND CRITERIA
 
Quantity
Percentage
 Mid-terms
1
40
 Assignment
0
0
 Exercises
0
0
 Projects
0
0
 Practice
0
0
 Quiz
0
0
 Contribution of In-term Studies to Overall Grade  
40
 Contribution of Final Examination to Overall Grade  
60
 -- WORKLOAD
 Efficiency  Total Week Count  Weekly Duration (in hour)  Total Workload in Semester
 Theoretical Study Hours of Course Per Week
14
3
42
 Practising Hours of Course Per Week
13
1
13
 Reading
0
 Searching in Internet and Library
14
1
14
 Designing and Applying Materials
14
2
28
 Preparing Reports
14
2
28
 Preparing Presentation
0
 Presentation
0
 Mid-Term and Studying for Mid-Term
0
 Final and Studying for Final
0
 Other
0
 TOTAL WORKLOAD: 
125
 TOTAL WORKLOAD / 25: 
5
 ECTS: 
5
 -- COURSE'S CONTRIBUTION TO PROGRAM
NO
 PROGRAM LEARNING OUTCOMES
1
2
3
4
5
1Having the professional expertise and skills on theoretical and practical aspects of econometrics, statistics and operational research.X
2Having qualities for professional competence in order to work in career fields such as inspector or assistant specialist or working department of research-development in public institutions and organizations, the private sector and civil society organizations.X
3Having knowledge about other disciplines such as economics, managements, public finance and law related to econometrics.X
4Having appropriate behavior of econometrics in the field of social, scientific, cultural and ethical values, applicability of gained knowledge and skills in accordance with the principle of responsibility to social and working life.X
5Having skills about foreign language and information system related to the fields in academic and working life.X
6Having skills about selecting, using and evaluating of appropriate statistical, econometric and mathematical programming methods, based on theoretical and practical knowledge acquired in the field related to the current problems faced by.X
7Having skills to work with the team for reach fruitful results in interdisciplinary and interdisciplinary studies.X
8Having knowledge of research methods in the field of institutions and organizations planning projects, managing, and to conduct independent researches.X
9Having qualities for analytical thinking, prospecting and bring scientific solutions to problems as a researcher.X
10Having skills to comprehension, application and evaluation about terms and basic theory of econometrics.X
11Having skills to comprehension, application and evaluation about terms and basic theory of statistics.X
12Having skills to comprehension, application and evaluation about terms and basic theory of statistics.
13Using some of the basic econometric and statistical software programs.X