GAZI UNIVERSITY INFORMATION PACKAGE - 2019 ACADEMIC YEAR

COURSE DESCRIPTION
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM/EKON307
Course Title: EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Credits 3 ECTS 5
Semester 5 Compulsory/Elective Elective
COURSE INFO
 -- LANGUAGE OF INSTRUCTION
  Turkish
 -- NAME OF LECTURER(S)
  Assoc.Prof. Senay Acikgoz
 -- WEB SITE(S) OF LECTURER(S)
   www.websitem.gazi.edu.tr/site/asenay
 -- EMAIL(S) OF LECTURER(S)
   asenay@gazi.edu.tr
 -- LEARNING OUTCOMES OF THE COURSE UNIT
Comprehends he importance of forecasting in Econometrics.
Improves his or her knowledge about forecasting methods.
Learns how to forecast by using the leading indicators approach.
Augments his or her knowledge about the literature related to leading indicators approach.





 -- MODE OF DELIVERY
   Lecture with blackboard demonstrations and slideshow presentations
 -- PREREQUISITES AND CO-REQUISITES
   There is no prerequisite or co-requisite for this course.
 -- RECOMMENDED OPTIONAL PROGRAMME COMPONENTS
   Statistical Analysis, Econometrics I-II
 --COURSE CONTENT
1. Week   Forecasting and Forecasting Methods
2. Week   Early Warning Systems
3. Week   The Leading Indicators Approach as a Method in Early Warning Systems
4. Week   Components of a Time Series: Trend, Seasonal, Cyclical and Irregular Movements
5. Week   Time Series Decomposition Methods: Trend
6. Week   Time Series Decomposition Methods: Seasonal Movements
7. Week   Reference Series, Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indicators
8. Week  Midterm
9. Week   Determining the Leading Indicators: Turning Points Approach
10. Week   Determining the Leading Indicators: Cross-Correlation Analysis
11. Week   Constructing the Indicator Indexes
12. Week   Leading Indicators for the General Economic Activity
13. Week   Leading Indicators for the Financial Vulnerability
14. Week   International Literature on Leading Indicators
15. Week   Articles on the Turkish Economy based on the Leading Indicators Approach
16. Week  Final
 -- RECOMMENDED OR REQUIRED READING
   MAKRIDAKIS, S., S.C., WHEELWRIGHT ve V.E., McGEE. Forecasting: Methods and Applications. New York, 1983.
 -- PLANNED LEARNING ACTIVITIES AND TEACHING METHODS
   Problem solving/discussion
 -- WORK PLACEMENT(S)
   No.
 -- ASSESSMENT METHODS AND CRITERIA
 
Quantity
Percentage
 Mid-terms
1
40
 Assignment
0
0
 Exercises
0
0
 Projects
1
20
 Practice
0
0
 Quiz
0
0
 Contribution of In-term Studies to Overall Grade  
60
 Contribution of Final Examination to Overall Grade  
40
 -- WORKLOAD
 Efficiency  Total Week Count  Weekly Duration (in hour)  Total Workload in Semester
 Theoretical Study Hours of Course Per Week
12
3
36
 Practising Hours of Course Per Week
2
3
6
 Reading
12
2
24
 Searching in Internet and Library
12
1
12
 Designing and Applying Materials
12
1
12
 Preparing Reports
12
1
12
 Preparing Presentation
0
0
0
 Presentation
0
0
0
 Mid-Term and Studying for Mid-Term
7
2
14
 Final and Studying for Final
7
2
14
 Other
0
 TOTAL WORKLOAD: 
130
 TOTAL WORKLOAD / 25: 
5.2
 ECTS: 
5
 -- COURSE'S CONTRIBUTION TO PROGRAM
NO
 PROGRAM LEARNING OUTCOMES
1
2
3
4
5
1Having the professional expertise and skills on theoretical and practical aspects of econometrics, statistics and operational research.X
2Having qualities for professional competence in order to work in career fields such as inspector or assistant specialist or working department of research-development in public institutions and organizations, the private sector and civil society organizations.X
3Having knowledge about other disciplines such as economics, managements, public finance and law related to econometrics.X
4Having appropriate behavior of econometrics in the field of social, scientific, cultural and ethical values, applicability of gained knowledge and skills in accordance with the principle of responsibility to social and working life.X
5Having skills about foreign language and information system related to the fields in academic and working life.X
6Having skills about selecting, using and evaluating of appropriate statistical, econometric and mathematical programming methods, based on theoretical and practical knowledge acquired in the field related to the current problems faced by.X
7Having skills to work with the team for reach fruitful results in interdisciplinary and interdisciplinary studies.X
8Having knowledge of research methods in the field of institutions and organizations planning projects, managing, and to conduct independent researches.X
9Having qualities for analytical thinking, prospecting and bring scientific solutions to problems as a researcher.X
10Having skills to comprehension, application and evaluation about terms and basic theory of econometrics.X
11Having skills to comprehension, application and evaluation about terms and basic theory of statistics.X
12Having skills to comprehension, application and evaluation about terms and basic theory of statistics.X
13Using some of the basic econometric and statistical software programs.X